A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
